Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 60%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète3 juil. 24, 21:49 UTC1 janv. 30, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >70km?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip
KalshiWill the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
Manifold MarketsIf Germany stops giving Ukraine heavy weapons, will Ukraine still exist in 2030?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if the company currently known as Virgin Galactic still exists in a recognisable form* on January 1st 2030
- Resolves NO otherwise, and may resolve earlier if it is sufficiently clear that it would resolve NO (eg bankruptcy with no signs of a possible revival)
- *To be considered a recognisable form:
- The company must be making progress towards (or currently operating) flights above 70km using an air launched spacecraft; and at least one of the following must still be true:
- 'Virgin' is still in its name (a brand name would count)
Marchés ouverts
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 82,1 k €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes8%
- Volume total
- 2,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 17,9 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 15 k €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill GameStop acquire eBay?
- No92.1%
- Yes7.9%
- Volume total
- 2,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 13,7 k €
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Israeli Legislative Election Winner
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 60% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria