Will Treasury ease Russia sanctions beyond diesel (crude oil, gasoline or jet fuel) before Election Day, Nov 3 2026?
Matières premièresOne-OffPolitiquePolitique américaineÉlectionRussie / Ukraine21jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82.2%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 minutes
10 oct. 26, 16:02 UTC4 nov. 26, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the price of WTI Crude Oil exceed $102 on October 30, 2026? (Petroleum) (Commodities) (Barrel) (Futures) (Gasoline)?
ForecastExWill the price of WTI Crude Oil exceed $86 on October 30, 2026? (Petroleum) (Commodities) (Barrel) (Futures) (Gasoline)?
ForecastExWill the price of WTI Crude Oil exceed $92 on October 13, 2026? (Petroleum) (Commodities) (Barrel) (Futures) (Gasoline)?
ForecastExWill any non-USA country ease Russian oil sanctions or price caps?
Manifold MarketsWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
PolymarketWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of October 12 2026?
PolymarketRègles
On October 9, 2026, Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a Russia-related general license authorizing the sale, delivery and importation (including into the United States) of Russian-origin diesel fuel through April 7, 2027, after President Trump announced a diesel supply deal with Vladimir Putin.
- This market asks whether the easing goes further before Election Day.
- Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, OFAC issues a new general license, or amends an existing one, that authorizes transactions in Russian-origin crude oil, gasoline, or jet fuel that US sanctions would otherwise prohibit.
- The license has to be listed on OFAC's Recent Actions page: https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions
- Does NOT count:
- The October 9 diesel license, or any extension or amendment of it that still covers only diesel.
