Will there be any Congressional Special Election flips in the 119th Congress?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection3j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97.4%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète4 déc. 24, 22:41 UTC3 nov. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This will resolve YES if there are any special elections where the incumbent party loses a seat between the swearing in of the 119th Congress and the 2026 General Election.
- This will not include any special elections held concurrently with general elections in 2026.
- In the case a representative or senator leaves their party and is an independent, the incumbent party will be defined as the last party which such representative caucused with in congress.
- This last occurred following George Santos's (R) expulsion in the 118th Congress as Tom Suozzi (D) won the special election held for New York's 3rd Congressional District.
- The last session of congress without any special election flips was the 144th Congress (2015-2017).
