Will there be a Scottish independence referendum (indyref2) by 2030?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionEurope3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.9%
Prévisionnistes
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Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard10 sept. 23, 16:26 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Scotland's independence referendum in 2014 was defeated by a vote 55% for remaining in the United Kingdom.
- Responding to the Brexit referendum in 2016, the Scottish National Party (SNP) began pursuing a second referendum, efforts towards which continue even to the time of writing this question.
- In 2022 the SNP was rebuffed by the Supreme Court which ruled that the Scottish government cannot hold a referendum on independence without the consent of the British government.
- Earlier in 2022, the SNP's previous leader, Nicola Sturgeon, said that the next Scottish election could be treated as a de facto referendum on independence.
- For the purposes of this question, only a formal referendum counts.
