Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 94.7%
Prévisionnistes
41
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète24 déc. 24, 02:36 UTC2 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US control Greenland in 2026?
FutuurWill USA “control” Venezuela by year's end?
Manifold MarketsWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketTrump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
PolymarketWill Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
KalshiRègles
If the US clearly has territorial sovereignty, whether de facto or de jure, over the entirety of the island of Greenland sometime before January 1, 2027, this market resolves YES, otherwise this market resolves NO on 1/1/27.
- If the US enters into a Compact of Free Association with Greenland, Greenland is administered under an independent Greenlandic administration, Greenland is administered by both the US and Denmark, the US gains mineral/exploration rights but not political control, or if only a part of Greenland is subject to the US (ex.
- Pituffik Space Base right now, future military bases), this market resolves NO.
- If Greenland is administered as a semi-autonomous region but can still be ultimately subject to the US federal government, ex.
- US tribal lands, this market resolves YES.
- If the US temporarily leases the entire island of Greenland and has control over the island and its affairs sometime before 2026, this market still resolves YES even if that control expired.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the USA control Greenland by EOY2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the USA control Greenland by EOY2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the USA control Greenland by EOY2026? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will the USA control Greenland by EOY2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If the US clearly has territorial sovereignty, whether de facto or de jure, over the entirety of the island of Greenland sometime before January 1, 2027, this market resolves YES, otherwise this market resolves NO on 1/1/27.