Will the US Senate's Filibuster rule be in place as-is on February 20th, 2027?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaine3mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 82.8%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 29 minutes
1 nov. 25, 19:56 UTC20 févr. 27, 15:34 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves Yes if the rules of the senate are in their current (November 1st, 2025) position as of February 20th, 2027.
- If the nuclear option is used to change or suspend the rule in between now and then, this market can still resolve Yes if the old normal is formally re-asserted before resolution.
- This market is concerned with the rule as it applies to general acts of congress, not to previously expanded executive and SCOTUS nominations.
- That said, those partial reductions in the rule would be enough for a No resolution had this market covered those time periods.
- Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments!
- Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for partial carve-outs counting as material changes (resolving No):
