Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 56.9%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard3 juil. 26, 09:09 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the US government has materially cut ASML off from Cymer before January 1st 2030.
- For this market, “cut ASML off from Cymer” means that a US government action prevents, or is clearly intended to prevent, ASML from owning, controlling, receiving, using, or relying on Cymer’s products, services, technology, personnel, IP, parts, or manufacturing capacity in a way that is material to ASML’s lithography business.
- Examples that would resolve YES include:
- A US law, executive order, sanctions action, export-control action, CFIUS action, court order, or agency order requiring ASML to divest, spin off, sell, firewall, or otherwise separate Cymer from ASML.
- A US government action prohibiting Cymer from supplying ASML or other ASML group entities with light sources, components, maintenance, engineering support, software, IP, manufacturing services, or related technology.
- ASML, Cymer, the US government, or multiple credible major news sources report that US restrictions have effectively blocked ASML from using Cymer in its lithography products or operations.
