Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?
Opérations sur titresIAOne-OffRégulationEntreprises et affaires3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleIF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban) 60%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 58 minutes
En retard13 sept. 26, 23:16 UTC1 janv. 30, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
roon (OpenAI), Sep 12 2026: "i won't lie to you, i think open source will be banned before too long after some major disaster. and when the day comes, you'll agree with me. i hope kimi and deepseek etc keep making models but keep them monitored on an api where they should be."
- A reply argued the ban is what closed labs need: they're unprofitable, need to IPO, and need the government to hand them a monopoly via regulation.
- This market tests both claims.
- Answers are independent and resolve separately.
- Answer 1: the named outcome
- Resolves YES if, on or before Dec 31, 2029, the US federal government enacts a statute, executive order, or final agency rule that prohibits the public release of model weights for general-purpose AI models, either outright or above a capability/compute threshold.
