Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 60%
Prévisionnistes
74
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète23 févr. 24, 20:37 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be an Unsong musical by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIs Digger (2026) a musical?
Manifold MarketsCMA Awards: Musical Event of the Year
KalshiWill ""You Have Not Been a Good User" (LessWrong's ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRunner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
KalshiRunner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
KalshiRègles
[image]I will create polls on Manifold and the ACX discord.
- To address survivorship bias, if the musical never happens, I will ask the creators why not.
- If they say that they cancelled it because it was going to be too hard to make it any good, I will resolve NO.
- If it was shelved for any other reason, I will resolve N/A. THE FINE PRINT:
- When summing results of multiple polls I will weigh the two equally, not in proportion to # of respondents.
Marchés ouverts
MusicKALSHIRunner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Choosin' Texas81.5%
- Sunflower5%
- Dai Dai3.4%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 15,4 k €
KALSHITaylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 14, 2026 - September 20, 2026)
- Above 13.9M99%
- Above 14M99%
- Above 13.7M99%
+28 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 13,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 13,8 k €
KALSHIRunner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip12%
- Parvati5%
- SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video)1%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 12,2 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWestside Whimsy: First Week Album Equivalent Units
- Above 65K99%
- Above 10K99%
- Above 25K99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 8,2 k €
KALSHIStagecoach 2027: Headliner(s)
- Garth Brooks+27.0pt94%
- Jason Aldean25%
- Megan Moroney16%
+16 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 11,7 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWho Will Perform at Red Rocks in 2027?
- Blues Traveler89%
- Widespread Panic88%
- The String Cheese Incident+39.0pt86%
+32 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,7 k €
- Westside Whimsy: First Week Pure Album Sales
- Drake: Highest daily view count in September 2026
- Top artist on Spotify in 2026?
- #2 Spotify song in the US this week? (September 18)
- #2 Spotify Song 2026
- #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Sep 26, 2026?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Top Artist on Spotify U.S. 2026
- Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Top Song on Spotify in 2026?
- Billboard #1 Artist 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Unsong musical be good? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 60% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Unsong musical be good? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Unsong musical be good? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will the Unsong musical be good? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : [image]I will create polls on Manifold and the ACX discord.