Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 91%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète23 mars 26, 11:51 UTC24 avr. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will be the next president of France in 2027 ?
Manifold MarketsMarine Le Pen Will be the next president of France.
Manifold MarketsWill the next president of France be the result of the 2027 planned elections?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- The election will be held in April 2027, with a second round two weeks later if no candidate secures a majority vote.
- The market resolves YES if the winner of the 2027 French presidential election is a member of the Parti Socialiste (PS).
- Resolution will be based on official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
- Relations between France Insoumise and the Parti Socialiste are at rock bottom, with PS First Secretary Olivier Faure stating there will be no national pact with France Insoumise in the 2027 presidential elections.
- Several leftist groups have announced a primary in October 2026 to pick a united left candidate under the banner 'Front Populaire', with representatives from the Parti Socialiste, the Greens, and the Communists participating.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
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- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
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KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste? doit être résolu le 24 avril 2027.
- Comment Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria