Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 92.9%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète23 mars 26, 11:51 UTC24 avr. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Marine Le Pen Will be the next president of France.
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next president of France in 2027 ?
Manifold MarketsWill the next president of France be the result of the 2027 planned elections?
Manifold MarketsWho will be elected President of France in the 2027 presidential election?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- The election will be held in April 2027, with a second round two weeks later if no candidate secures a majority vote.
- The market resolves YES if the winner of the 2027 French presidential election is a member of the Parti Socialiste (PS).
- Resolution will be based on official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
- Relations between France Insoumise and the Parti Socialiste are at rock bottom, with PS First Secretary Olivier Faure stating there will be no national pact with France Insoumise in the 2027 presidential elections.
- Several leftist groups have announced a primary in October 2026 to pick a united left candidate under the banner 'Front Populaire', with representatives from the Parti Socialiste, the Greens, and the Communists participating.