Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 67%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète26 août 25, 15:54 UTC4 juil. 29, 15:49 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will be the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsWill the Labour Party win the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsIf this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Labour Party vote percent
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?
PolymarketRègles
Under UK law there is no fixed date for the next General Election (GE).
- However the law does state that the next GE must be held before 15th of August 2029.
- For the purposes of this question a full term will mean serving in government for more then 4 full years.
- Therefore if there is no GE before 4th of July 2028 then this question will resolve YES.
- The Labour party took office on early July 2024.
- It took office with a very low voter share and grown to become incredibly unpopular with student labour party groups disaffiliting from the party.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Labour party be in office for more than 4 years before the next general election? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 67% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Labour party be in office for more than 4 years before the next general election? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Labour party be in office for more than 4 years before the next general election? doit être résolu le 4 juillet 2029.
- Comment Will the Labour party be in office for more than 4 years before the next general election? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Under UK law there is no fixed date for the next General Election (GE).