Will the Israeli elections result in government formation?
PolitiqueOne-OffÉchecsÉlectionMoyen-OrientSport7mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 59%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 25 minutes
18 juil. 26, 22:35 UTC31 mai 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How many Israeli elections until a government forms?
KalshiNext Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
PolymarketNext Israeli Minister of Finance?
PolymarketWhich parties will be in the next Israeli government?
PolymarketWho will be a part of the next government of Israel?
KalshiWho will be Israeli defense minister after the election?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to YES if, following the Israeli legislative election scheduled for October 27, 2026, a new government successfully receives a vote of confidence in the Knesset (requiring at least 61 votes) and is sworn in.
- The market resolves to NO if the Knesset is dissolved and new snap elections are officially triggered without a government being successfully formed, or if no new government has won a vote of confidence and been sworn in by June 1, 2027.
- If the October 27, 2026 election is postponed, the resolution timeline will be extended accordingly.
- If the election is canceled or does not occur by June 1, 2027, the market will resolve N/A (this is highly unlikely).
- Current polling shows a highly fragmented electorate, raising the possibility of a coalition deadlock: