Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 79.4%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète2 juil. 26, 17:36 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
PolymarketWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketWill someone actually “dim the sun” by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?
Manifold MarketsRègles
A weather market includes weather futures, markets on snow, rain, temperature in a city.
- Things that would count: geoengineering, earthworks, reforestation
- An entity must manipulate the weather itself.
- The manipulation must have some reasonable intent of manipulating the prediction market.
- Manipulating a weather measurement device with false measurements does not count.
- However, manipulating a measurement device with real weather changes does count.
Marchés ouverts
Crypto
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 9pm EDT?
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 566,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 548,4 k €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.2pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.7pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 79% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : A weather market includes weather futures, markets on snow, rain, temperature in a city.