Prévision communautaire actuelle
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13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard15 oct. 23, 17:13 UTC2 janv. 29, 18:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will 14-day weather forecasts reach 60% accuracy?
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PolymarketWill the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Escambia, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather)?
ForecastExRègles
Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.
- This market is managed by a bot.
- Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run.
