Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 23 oct. 2026, 21:22 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 81.5%
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26
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard1 août 26, 14:44 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Situational Awareness raises new capital by which date?
PolymarketSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
Polymarket[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?
Manifold MarketsWill Situational Awareness LP raise fresh capital after its July 2026 unwind?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
[tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.
- Compares Situational Awareness (incl. renames/successors managing substantially the same funds) vs. Citadel Advisors.
- Citadel Securities is a market maker with no AUM and doesn't factor in.
- Uses the latest figure for each firm dated on or before Dec 31, 2029, from company statements, regulatory filings, or credible financial press (Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/Reuters); both figures must be within 12 months of each other.
- If a net AUM figure is unavailable for either firm, Form ADV regulatory AUM is used for both.
- YES iff SA's figure strictly exceeds Citadel's.
