Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 71.8%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 40 minutes
1 août 26, 14:44 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
[tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.
- Compares Situational Awareness (incl. renames/successors managing substantially the same funds) vs. Citadel Advisors.
- Citadel Securities is a market maker with no AUM and doesn't factor in.
- Uses the latest figure for each firm dated on or before Dec 31, 2029, from company statements, regulatory filings, or credible financial press (Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/Reuters); both figures must be within 12 months of each other.
- If a net AUM figure is unavailable for either firm, Form ADV regulatory AUM is used for both.
- YES iff SA's figure strictly exceeds Citadel's.
Marchés ouverts
Business & Corporate
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M96%
- $25M95%
- $50M85%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 180,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 180,1 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+8.0pt57.6%
- 65-89+13.0pt34.3%
- 90-114+0.5pt4%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.5pt97%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet+0.1pt1%
+6 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 182,1 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Above 680,000+4.0pt98%
- Above 690,00094%
- Above 710,000-1.0pt28%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 60,4 k €
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 72% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : [tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.