Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026?
One-OffPolitiqueAsie du SudCriminalité et justice2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 98.9%
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5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète1 sept. 26, 01:22 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been living in exile in India since being ousted during a August 2024 student uprising.
- While she announced her desire to end her exile and return to Bangladesh by late 2026, doing so carries massive stakes.
- A special tribunal in Dhaka sentenced Hasina to death in absentia over human rights violations and genocide tied to the violent 2024 protest crackdown.
- Bangladesh's current interim government has banned her party, and authorities confirmed she will face immediate arrest if she sets foot in the country.
- Hasina frames her return as a duty to her supporters, while critics maintain she faces prison or execution upon arrival.
- This market resolves YES if Hasina physically enters Bangladesh by December 31, 2026, and NO if legal risks and political instability keep her in exile.
