Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 99%
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
21 janv. 25, 23:41 UTC2 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Manifold MarketsAt the start of 2027, which global catastrophic risk organisations will Giving What we Can facilitate donations to?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBy when will a competition platform like Codeforces but for mathematics (theorem proving) appear?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This resolves to YES if we are confident that DeepSeek's r1 or DeepSeek's v3 would have been held responsible for a catastrophic risk, anywhere in the world, as it would have been judged by the vetoed SB 1047.
- Future versions of r1 or v3 (including something like r1.5 or v3.1) DO count towards this, but anything labeled r2 or higher, or v4 or higher, does not.
- This resolves to NO if that does not happen.
- This resolves early to NO if DeepSeek or others have released new models such that it is essentially impossible for the event to take place, AND the market is trading reliably at <5%, and someone actually notifies me of this.
- If we are actively uncertain if this event happened, this resolves to my best estimate % chance it happened - which will be the market price if I think market is reasonable and not manipulated.
- I will likely not answer ANY clarification questions, period, after my recent experiences.
