Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 76.7%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète8 mai 25, 20:24 UTC1 janv. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Pope Leo XIV cease to be pope before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump be excommunicated by Pope Leo XIV in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Pope Leo XIV shake hand with President Trump?
Manifold MarketsWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill Trump meet with Pope Leo in 2026?
PredictItRègles
Resolves YES if anyone gifts Pope Leo XIV Deltarune, in any way comparable to how MatPat gifted Pope Francis Undertale, by January 1st 2030.
- This could be a gift code, a box of the game, or anything else which could reasonably be called gifting the pope Deltarune.
- For this to count, this must either be a gift which the Pope acknowledges in some form, or is otherwise in the audience for.
- That is to say, someone online can't just say they bought the Holy Father a copy of Deltarune that he's free to claim, or that they emailed it to him, or anything like that.
- This market will resolve YES very leniently, as long as it's in the spirit of the market.
Marchés ouverts
Entertainment
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 342,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 91,2 k €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 182,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 90,8 k €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+25.1pt47.2%
- No Bond chosen-3.1pt18.9%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 résultats de plus
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+8.0pt46%
- Jack Barton-4.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt18%
+27 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 264,6 k €
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-53.0pt14%
- Above 50-56.0pt8%
- Above 55-48.0pt2%
+14 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 84,3 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Pope Leo XIV be gifted Deltarune by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 77% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Pope Leo XIV be gifted Deltarune by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Pope Leo XIV be gifted Deltarune by 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Pope Leo XIV be gifted Deltarune by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if anyone gifts Pope Leo XIV Deltarune, in any way comparable to how MatPat gifted Pope Francis Undertale, by January 1st 2030.