Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 63%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète30 juil. 25, 22:02 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine hold a national referendum on conceding territory in 2026?
FutuurBy 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRègles
Palestine has not held a presidential election since 2005, and not held a parliamentary election since 2006 (Wikipedia).
- Although there have been local elections, at the national level, Palestine has not held an election in 20 years.
- This question resolves YES if Palestine holds an election recognizably national in character.
- A presidential election would count, a parliamentary election would count, but local elections would not count.
- A presidential or parliamentary election for a large fraction but not all of Palestine (e.g. just the West Bank) would count, if it purports and is widely understood to be a national election for Palestine.
- The election needs merely to have substantively happened, regardless of its quality or results.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Palestine hold a national election before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 63% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Palestine hold a national election before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Palestine hold a national election before 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will Palestine hold a national election before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Palestine has not held a presidential election since 2005, and not held a parliamentary election since 2006 (Wikipedia).