Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleDec 31st 2028 or earlier? 33%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète4 nov. 25, 14:39 UTC1 janv. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?
Manifold MarketsThe Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI go public in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX acquire any major U.S. telecom business before 2028?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
On a recent episode of the Bg2 Pod, Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI) was aaked about how OpenAI can have a reported $13ish billion usd in revenue and yet have over $1 trillion in spending commitments over the next years.
- Sam had a lot to say, but as part of his response said, "There are not many times I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times that it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous, 'OpenAI is about to go out of business,'....I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that."
- article about this here: https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-defends-openai-trillion-spending-2025-11
- Youtube video of podcast here: https://youtu.be/Gnl833wXRz0?si=hYqgzVM7qjlzjS-n (see ~12:00 mark for the question)
- This is a modest attempt to operationalize that, and I highly encourage any OpenAI bulls and bears to buy YES and NO respectively in this market.
- Each question will resolve YES if the below happens on or before the question's indicated date, and if either of the following occurs:
Marchés ouverts
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 85,3 k €
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 184,9 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.4pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+43.3pt94%
- No-43.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 21,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 20,3 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.0pt78.2%
- 1.25T–1.5T-3.0pt8.9%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'... ?
- Manifold Markets cote Dec 31st 2028 or earlier? à 33% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'... sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'... doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'... est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : On a recent episode of the Bg2 Pod, Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI) was aaked about how OpenAI can have a reported $13ish billion usd in revenue and yet have over $1 trillion in spending commitments over the next years.