Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 55.8%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 heures
Obsolète23 juin 26, 17:31 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta (Facebook) deliver on it's web3/metaverse vision before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if, by 23:59 ET on Dec 31, 2027, Meta Platforms makes a real money prediction market product (the app reported by NYT as internally codenamed "Arena," or any successor/rebrand) publicly available to general users in at least one market, via official launch or public beta.
- Users should be able stake and win real money or real-money-equivalent value (cash, crypto, redeemable credits).
- Sweepstakes or promotional models count as long as they pay out real-money value.
- Pure play-money, points-only, or free-to-play versions with no cash-equivalent payout do not count.
- Waitlist, internal-only test or unreleased announcement does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
