Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 69.9%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
5 avr. 24, 14:16 UTC1 janv. 30, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?
Manifold MarketsIs the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2?
Manifold MarketsWill any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRègles
The linked market is set up to extend its closing until consensus is reached in Martin's opinion.
- This market will resolve when 2029 ends.
- Why this market? In my opinion the linked market is quite probably way off.
- If the linked market is likely to resolve, it is worth tracking the market and betting my belief.
- If it "never" will, the market can stay wrong indefinitely, and my expected value is hard to decide.
- Therefore this market, which is more decidable.
