Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 19:26 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 65.1%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète18 juil. 26, 14:27 UTC31 déc. 99, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will manifold shut down?
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2100 (12:00 AM UTC), the prediction market platform Manifold (currently located at manifold.markets) permanently shuts down.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2100.
- "Permanently shut down" is defined by meeting at least one of the following conditions:
- The platform's parent company (Manifold Markets, Inc. or its corporate successor) formally dissolves, goes bankrupt, or liquidates, and the prediction market platform ceases operations with no successor platform taking its place.
- The platform's web domain and services remain entirely offline or non-functional for a continuous period of at least 12 consecutive months, with no official public statement from the operators indicating an intent to resume service.
