Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 50% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?
Matières premièresOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 64.3%
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16
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète1 oct. 23, 13:55 UTC2 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 80% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?
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KalshiRègles
For the purposes of this question a low carbon vehicle can be a plugin hybrid, a purely electric vehicle, a hydrogen powered vehicle, or any other that doesn't directly generate significant amounts of carbon emissions.
- The average vehicle generates 300-400 g CO2 per mile driven so any vehicle generating less than 40g CO2 per mile driven should qualify (with the caveat that combustion-engine vehicles running on gasoline that aren't plugin hybrids will never qualify).
- Passenger vehicles as defined by BTS or closest available https://www.bts.gov/content/new-and-used-passenger-car-sales-and-leases-thousands-vehicles
- Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The >50% threshold for low carbon vehicle sales must represent an enduring shift.
- The market may resolve YES based on data from a single month or quarter if it clearly indicates an enduring trend.
- If the trend is unclear from earlier data, the creator will wait until the long-term trend is clear, even past the market's close date if necessary.
