Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 57.5%
Prévisionnistes
43
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 23 minutes
24 sept. 25, 16:51 UTC24 sept. 27, 16:25 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket?
Manifold MarketsPredict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
PolymarketBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Polymarket and Kalshi are currently hotly competing for prediction market dominance, and are about the same size.
- This resolves once that is no longer the case, and one is dramatically more successful than the other.
- [image]I don't want to define a single metric since that can be goodharted, but I'm looking for roughly a 90/10 split or better of general prediction market mindspace and finance-space.
- (Between them only.
- The emergence of a third competitor doesn't factor in.)
- For comparison I would say that Kalshi seems on vibes to be pretty close to beating PredictIt, or possibly has already.