Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 56%
Prévisionnistes
66
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète28 févr. 25, 09:56 UTC20 janv. 29, 13:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Joe Biden outlive Donald Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?
KalshiWill the size of the Supreme Court be changed during Trump's Presidency?
KalshiElon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be excommunicated by the Catholic Church during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
KalshiRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if:
- Joe Biden is still alive when Donald Trump's current presidential term ends (normally January 20, 2029), or if Trump's presidency ends earlier for any reason (resignation, removal from office, death) and Biden is still alive at that time.
- The market will resolve to NO if:
- Joe Biden dies before Trump's presidency concludes.
- Market will continue in the event of a Trump presidency continuing beyond January 20th 2029, until one of the conditions are met.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
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- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 56% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria