Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 72.9%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète1 août 26, 16:23 UTC16 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump or Biden Live longer?
Manifold MarketsWill Clavicular live longer than Zyzz did?
Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiLos Angeles Mayor winner?
KalshiRègles
If Biden’s lifespan ultimately exceeds Trump’s
- (Identical market to: source market)
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+12.0pt81.2%
- Yes-12.0pt18.8%
- Volume total
- 15,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1 M €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.3pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.8pt17%
- Gavin Newsom+0.5pt13%
+48 résultats de plus
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate+3.0pt50%
- D-House, R-Senate-2.0pt34%
- R-House, R-Senate-3.0pt14%
+1 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 188,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 675,8 k €
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-2.0pt63%
- Nithya Raman+3.0pt37%
- Volume total
- 27,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 642,6 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.5pt52.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt45.5%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt2%
+16 résultats de plus
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Next French Presidential Election
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
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- Texas Senate winner?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 73% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump? doit être résolu le 16 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If Biden’s lifespan ultimately exceeds Trump’s