Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 51.9%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète8 déc. 25, 10:33 UTC8 déc. 33, 10:30 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an active Manifold user be indicted for murder before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsMost profitable Manifold user at end of 2026
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if I personally resolve this market within 72 hours of its scheduled close date(08.12.2033), indicating that I was still an active Manifold user at the time.
- Resolves NO if:
- I do not resolve the market within 72 hours after close, or
- A moderator or anyone else ends up resolving it on my behalf (which would imply I was inactive).
- I will only bet YES on this market.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt30.3%
- <40-5.5pt12.1%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,8 k €
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane95%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Tariff86%
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,1 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- 18,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 989,4 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,4 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Volume total
- 136,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 247 €
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 52% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ? doit être résolu le 8 décembre 2033.
- Comment Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if I personally resolve this market within 72 hours of its scheduled close date(08.12.2033), indicating that I was still an active Manifold user at the time.