Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 55.9%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète8 déc. 25, 10:33 UTC8 déc. 33, 10:30 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an active Manifold user be indicted for murder before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I still be active on Manifold in 1 year?
Manifold MarketsWill MNX commission a new longform piece about AI by a Manifold user before November?
Manifold MarketsDuolingo language rankings · #2 in 2026?
KalshiDuolingo language rankings · Top 10 in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if I personally resolve this market within 72 hours of its scheduled close date(08.12.2033), indicating that I was still an active Manifold user at the time.
- Resolves NO if:
- I do not resolve the market within 72 hours after close, or
- A moderator or anyone else ends up resolving it on my behalf (which would imply I was inactive).
- I will only bet YES on this market.
