Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.3%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
ObsolèteTendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?
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KalshiRègles
This question resolves YES if, at some time in the next few millenia, I am extremely confident to be immortal: (1) won't expect to die, and (2) won't expect entropy to be an issue in 10**100 years, etc.
- Quantum immortality doesn't count.
- Update 2026-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): On the definition of "I" (identity) for resolution:
- No requirement for physical continuity or continuity of experience/psychology
- Continuity of values and memories and smoothness of self are important
