Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffUS Politics2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 55.1%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète8 janv. 25, 14:44 UTC1 févr. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO?
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KalshiRègles
GSE exit from government conservatorship could enrich speculative investors in their common and preferred equity, including Bill Ackman who has loudly advocated for their release on Twitter.
- Privatization was a putative goal of the first Trump administration, but fairly little progress was made, in part due to large structural difficulties in accomplishing the goal, including the need for enormous amounts of capital to back the GSEs were they to go private.
- Some of those obstacles have lessened since the first Trump administration ended.
- Fannie and Freddie's equity both trade in the mid $4 range at the time this market opened, compared to about $1 at the recent lows during the Biden administration, and $31 that Bill Ackman suggested as a most likely IPO price.
- Resolution will be based on my personal judgement, and I will not trade in this question.
- Generally an event will count as a "YES" if it ends some or all of the existing government conservatorship and creates a clear path for private investors to be able to receive future cashflows resulting from the GSEs' future profits.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 55% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029? doit être résolu le 1 février 2029.
- Comment Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : GSE exit from government conservatorship could enrich speculative investors in their common and preferred equity, including Bill Ackman who has loudly advocated for their release on Twitter.