Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.6%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 35 minutes
21 nov. 22, 00:19 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Jon Ossoff run and win the 2028 Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk run in the 2036 Presidential Election.
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk run in the 2032 Presidential Election
Manifold MarketsWill Ivanka Trump run in a presidential primary election before 2036?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PolymarketRègles
Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator's comment, in response to a query about constitutional eligibility, suggests that the market considers the possibility of changes to constitutional eligibility for Elon Musk.
- This implies that current ineligibility does not automatically preclude a YES resolution if legal frameworks (e.g., via a constitutional amendment) were to change to permit him to run and he subsequently does so.
- Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specifies that the market tracks any serious candidacy effort, regardless of whether a constitutional amendment succeeds.
- YES if Elon Musk either:
- Is officially recognized as a candidate by filing FEC Form 2, OR
- Appears on at least one state’s official presidential ballot by Election Day 2028.