Will El Niño break NOAA's all-time record? The official ONI value for Aug–Oct 2026 (record: +2.59)
1.2 pts (24h)MétéoOne-Off19jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle+2.60 or higher (new record) 41%+1.2ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
2
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multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+16.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 minutes
23 oct. 26, 19:24 UTC12 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRègles
Question: What value will NOAA publish for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for August–September–October 2026 (ASO 2026)?
- The ONI is NOAA's official El Niño yardstick: the 3-month average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific.
- The highest ONI ever recorded is +2.59 (NDJ 2015).
- The 1997 peak was +2.37.
- Where it stands (Oct 23): JJA 2026 = +1.80, JAS 2026 = +2.16, and the weekly Niño 3.4 readings for October are running near +3.3°C, the highest in the weekly record.
- September's monthly Niño 3.4 temperature was an all-time high per Copernicus.