Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 69.5%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
28 avr. 26, 19:37 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️
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Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Derek Thompson formally announces a campaign for any elected public office (federal, state, or local) on or before December 31, 2030.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- A "formal announcement" is defined as an official declaration by Derek Thompson, a filing with an electoral commission, or a verifiable campaign website launch indicating a run for office.
- If he holds office by election, or is a declared candidate by the resolution date, the market resolves to YES.
- Derek Thompson (born 1986) is an American journalist, podcaster, and author who was a staff writer at The Atlantic from 2009 until mid-2025, when he left to write independently on Substack .
