Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 69.5%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète28 avr. 26, 19:37 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Unlikely Democrats to hold office by EOY 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhich World Leaders will leave office before EOY 2027? (Add Answers)
Manifold MarketsWill Matthew McConaughey run for office before 2028?
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Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Derek Thompson formally announces a campaign for any elected public office (federal, state, or local) on or before December 31, 2030.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- A "formal announcement" is defined as an official declaration by Derek Thompson, a filing with an electoral commission, or a verifiable campaign website launch indicating a run for office.
- If he holds office by election, or is a declared candidate by the resolution date, the market resolves to YES.
- Derek Thompson (born 1986) is an American journalist, podcaster, and author who was a staff writer at The Atlantic from 2009 until mid-2025, when he left to write independently on Substack .
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 70% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria