Will China's MOFCOM samarium export controls be actively in force on December 31, 2027?
ChineOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 67.5%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 26, 14:17 UTC31 déc. 27, 05:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if China's MOFCOM export license requirement for samarium (Sm), samarium oxide (Sm2O3), and samarium alloys is actively enforced on December 31, 2027 — i.e., exporters must obtain an export license under MOFCOM Decree No. 18 or equivalent order.
- YES if: Export licenses are required for samarium as of December 31, 2027 NO if: Controls are suspended or permanently rescinded on December 31, 2027
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- MOFCOM official gazette (mofcom.gov.cn) — export control announcements
- China Ministry of Commerce policy announcements
- Reuters / Bloomberg reporting on China rare earth export policy
