Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète19 juil. 26, 12:08 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027?"
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.
- This question is answered "No" if there is:
- no military conflict between the two parties
- a limited military conflict without triggering a major war
- On the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction.
- Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.