Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?
CryptoOne-OffCrime & Justice1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 64.5%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète1 nov. 24, 17:47 UTC8 nov. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Caroline Ellison was sentenced to two years in prison for her role in the FTX scandal, and is set to begin her sentence on or around November 7, 2024.
- Before the FTX collapse, she was a semi-frequent poster on Tumblr, under the username worldoptimization (the blog is currently deactivated but still viewable, and could be reactivated in the future).
- This question asks whether she will (publicly) resume posting on Tumblr within a year of her expected release date, under either the existing worldoptimization username or a new one.
- If Tumblr ceases to exist before then, this will resolve to "NO".
- Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for a 'Yes' Outcome:
- Real Activity: A one-off post or a post stating no further posts will be made does not count.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 65% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison? doit être résolu le 8 novembre 2027.
- Comment Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Caroline Ellison was sentenced to two years in prison for her role in the FTX scandal, and is set to begin her sentence on or around November 7, 2024.