Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95%
Prévisionnistes
121
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète23 oct. 23, 01:36 UTC2 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
KalshiSpotify Premium Family Plan price increase this year?
KalshiSpotify Premium Duo Plan price increase this year?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
I've been chatting with @BTE about their plan to found a competitor to Manifold.
- The core plan is a little differerent from the direction Manifold has gone, and seems like it could go very well or completely fail.
- I've been asked not to share the details.
- Resolves subjectivly based on whether it overall seems to have worked out.
- (Resolves N/A if it's not attempted.) I won't bet.
- Update 2025-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Deadline for Resolution: The market will now automatically resolve as NO at the end of 2026 unless BTE demonstrates something real.
Marchés ouverts
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+5.5pt96%
- $25M+8.5pt94%
- $50M+13.0pt87%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 351,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 351,4 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt52%
- 65-89+24.5pt45.1%
- 90-114-2.5pt2.9%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-21918.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,7 k €
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 résultats de plus
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will BTE's secret plan work? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will BTE's secret plan work? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will BTE's secret plan work? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will BTE's secret plan work? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I've been chatting with @BTE about their plan to found a competitor to Manifold.