Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 70.5%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 42 minutes
4 mai 26, 20:22 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiWhich companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
KalshiWill Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027?
KalshiOpenAI’s valuation end of November 2026?
PolymarketWhich banks will take Anthropic public?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any government or sovereign-wealth-fund publicly announces a single AI-infrastructure investment commitment of $10 billion USD or more.
- "Sovereign-AI deal" includes: government-funded AI compute capacity, sovereign-cloud investments, government-AI-procurement frameworks with stated budgets, sovereign-wealth-fund equity investments in AI infrastructure companies, government data-center build commitments.
- The deal must be ≥$10B in stated commitment value.
- Source of truth: government press releases, sovereign-wealth-fund public communications, ministerial-level announcements, publicly reported via primary sources (gov.* domains) or major news outlets citing primary sources.
- A single line-item in a national budget that allocates ≥$10B to AI counts.
- A multi-year program where the announced commitment ≥$10B counts.