Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82%
Prévisionnistes
53
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète3 juil. 23, 15:25 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What conspiracy theories will be proven true by 2100? (Mega Market)
Manifold MarketsWhat conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill any of these unhinged conspiracy theories turn out to be true by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill race realism/scientific racism be proven true by 2050
Manifold MarketsDuolingo language rankings · Top 10 in 2026?
KalshiWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
KalshiRègles
I'll be using this list for qualifying conspiracy theories:
- https://www.teenvogue.com/story/most-popular-conspiracy-theories
- [link preview]I'll resolve this market YES if a consensus forms that any of these theories is broadly correct before the market resolution date.
- Otherwise I will resolve NO.
- A longstanding wikipedia article stating that one of these things is true would resolve YES, though I'm open to large polls of experts or other standards for defining consensus.
- I will not bet in this market.
