Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 81.1%
Prévisionnistes
42
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète23 sept. 24, 16:56 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50?
Manifold MarketsNVDA stock price exceeds AAPL stock price before January 1, 2027
Manifold MarketsWill GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsNVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by which date?
PolymarketInstacart gross transaction value in Q3
KalshiOpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Is there an AI bubble, and if so how big is it? Let's find out using the actual stock market.
- Resolves YES if and only if any 4 of the mentioned stocks (AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM) trade at 40% or less of their split-adjusted historical peak between now and Dec 31, 2027, inclusive.
- For example, if ASML goes up to a new peak of $1200 and then falls back down to $480 a share, then ASML will count as one the 4 stocks.
- The 4 stocks need not all be below 40% at the same time.
- If any of the stocks are renamed, the market will continue track the price of the stock under its new name.
- If any are acquired by another publicly traded company, the market will track the proportion of that other company's stock which the original stock represents.