Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 81.4%
Prévisionnistes
44
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard23 sept. 24, 16:56 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50?
Manifold MarketsNVDA stock price exceeds AAPL stock price before January 1, 2027
Manifold MarketsWill the 2027 CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform Nvidia / NVDA over the next year?
Manifold MarketsWill Greece's GDP per capita (Nominal) surpass it's peak value in 2008 by the end of the decade?
Manifold MarketsWill Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?
PolymarketWill Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?
PolymarketRègles
Is there an AI bubble, and if so how big is it? Let's find out using the actual stock market.
- Resolves YES if and only if any 4 of the mentioned stocks (AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM) trade at 40% or less of their split-adjusted historical peak between now and Dec 31, 2027, inclusive.
- For example, if ASML goes up to a new peak of $1200 and then falls back down to $480 a share, then ASML will count as one the 4 stocks.
- The 4 stocks need not all be below 40% at the same time.
- If any of the stocks are renamed, the market will continue track the price of the stock under its new name.
- If any are acquired by another publicly traded company, the market will track the proportion of that other company's stock which the original stock represents.
