Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.4%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète21 mai 25, 14:29 UTC2 janv. 30, 14:28 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Andy Weir’s next novel take place in space?
Manifold MarketsWhen will AI write a widely read version of The Winds of Winter - GOT Book 6?
Manifold MarketsWill Kanye release a song titled 'second holocaust' or similar by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsMost expensive auction work sold in 2026
KalshiWill Irwin B. return to work at Lumon in season 3 of "Severance"?
Futuur"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketRègles
In May 2025, the Chicago Sun-Times newspaper published an AI-generated "summer reading list for 2025" that recommended several books which don’t actually exist, including "The Last Algorithm" by sci-fi author Andy Weir (author of the books The Martian, Artemis, and Project Hail Mary).
- This prediction market asks whether Andy Weir will actually write a work titled "The Last Algorithm" before the year 2030.
- Resolving rules
- This will be resolved YES shortly after the work becomes available and can be read by an ordinary person.
- This will be resolved NO at the beginning of the year 2030 if no public information about such a work exists.
- UTC timezone will be used to determine the start of 2030.
Marchés ouverts
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 319,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 98 k €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 résultats de plus
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 80 k €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 130,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 45,3 k €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4 M €
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- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030) ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030) doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In May 2025, the Chicago Sun-Times newspaper published an AI-generated "summer reading list for 2025" that recommended several books which don’t actually exist, including "The Last Algorithm" by sci-fi author Andy Weir (author of the books The Martian, Artemis, and Project Hail Mary).