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Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète14 mars 23, 23:02 UTC14 mars 33, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI play a substential role in the discovery of the first room T+P superconductor ?
Manifold MarketsWill I be able to get an AI to play Inflection Point with me before the end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsWill someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market?
Manifold MarketsThe Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Some singularitarians and transhumanists seem to have an almost childlike naivete about economic growth.
- No matter how fast AI develops technology, if politicians and government bureaucrats place enough roadblocks in the way of new technology, it won't be able to solve the problems it's supposed to solve.
- For example, in the UK, the planning system has made it almost impossible to build new onshore wind turbines and solar farms, and has even made it more difficult to build new offshore wind turbines:
- (https://www.youtube.com/embed/fCLHfjNTldQ)So at a certain point, politics becomes the limiting factor, not technology.
- In the UK, it won't matter how good wind turbine technology gets, if NIMBYs can still block most wind turbines from ever being erected.
- In California, it won't matter how good prefabricated home technology gets and how good house-building robots get, if NIMBYs can still block most new housing from ever being constructed.
