Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.1%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète26 mai 25, 06:58 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Is the Super Mario Titans leak real?
Manifold MarketsWho will break the 5/5 stranglehold on Super Mario 64 speedrunning and collect the world record bounty?
Manifold MarketsWhat words will the title of the sequel for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie include?
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiNext James Bond actor?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if SM64 is known to be beatable with 120 stars in less than 13 A presses on any official release.
- More information here: https://ukikipedia.net/wiki/A_Button_Challenge
- Most people familiar with the game believe the A press in Bowser in the Fire Sea is theoretically savable, but it's a very complicated level that has seen slow progress for 7 years now.
- Even though a slow strategy seems likely to work, people are waiting to tas the full level until they find a faster strategy, which would be likely to be very complicated.
- There are also 12 other a presses with varying degrees of promise, but none currently have any serious plans for a save.
- Generally, I will count an A press as being "saved" when it is completely console verified (usually these are live streamed on twitch).
Marchés ouverts
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+42.0pt76%
- 940 - 950m-42.0pt19.2%
- 960 - 970m+0.2pt1.9%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 296,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 88,6 k €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+32.0pt61%
- Jack Barton-2.0pt19%
- Callum Turner-11.0pt16%
+27 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+13.1pt32%
- No Bond chosen-7.6pt16%
- Jack Barton+0.9pt14%
+21 résultats de plus
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt28.4%
- Barrett Pfeiffer+2.0pt18.4%
- Drew Campbell-1.0pt12.8%
+14 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKET# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- 70-80M+8.7pt63.6%
- 80-90M-2.0pt34.3%
- 60-70M-4.0pt1%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey52%
- Dune: Part Three13%
- The Black Ball11%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 28,1 k €
- Primetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Post Malone: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026)
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Morgan Wallen: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026)
- Which streaming service will win the most Emmys?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if SM64 is known to be beatable with 120 stars in less than 13 A presses on any official release.