Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 06:35 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 90.3%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète6 juin 25, 21:44 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2029, an official declaration of independence from the United States is made by the government of any U.S. state.
- The declaration must explicitly state the state's intent to secede from the Union or anyway don't recognize the authority of the president of the United States.
- The resolution will be based on credible news reports from reputable sources such as The New York Times, Reuters, or The Associated Press.
- If no such declaration is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
- Update 2025-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies they are aiming for an effective attempt for independence, distinguishing this from what they consider merely vague intent.