Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 69.8% au 30 octobre 2026.

Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030?

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 69.8%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 17 heures

Obsolète

3 août 23, 17:06 UTC2 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

This market resolves YES if a current Republican member of the US congress is identified as a white nationalist before 2030.

This market resolves NO if that does not happen.
Identifying someone as a white nationalist would involve them attending (in person, remotely, or asychronously through video or audio) or speaking at an event intended for white nationalists AND having this be credibly reported on.
To avoid controversy, I will use this archived list from wikipedia.
As a result, Rep. Greene and Rep. Gosar's attendance at the American First Political Action Committee does not qualify, while former Rep. King's attendance at an American Renaissance conference does qualify.
(Note: this question was inspired by former Rep. Steve King's history of racism.)