JavaScript est désactivé. La navigation principale et les pages éditoriales restent disponibles, mais les widgets de marché en direct, les graphiques, la recherche et les fonctions de personnalisation peuvent être limités.

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Régulation IAOne-OffTech3mois

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 86.6%

Prévisionnistes

13

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 8 heures

Obsolète

18 mars 26, 16:26 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

Will MalgoTechnologies be a TOP AI Development company

Manifold Markets

[Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development

Manifold Markets

AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027

Manifold Markets

Bering Sea snow crab catch limit for 2026-27

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law?

Règles

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a major tech company (defined as a company with market capitalization exceeding $100 billion or annual revenue exceeding $50 billion) publicly announces a pause or meaningful limitation on AI development activities due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027.
The announcement must explicitly cite safety as the primary reason and involve a concrete action (e.g., halting training of specific models, delaying product releases, or reducing AI R&D investment).
Statements about "prioritizing safety" or implementing safety measures without pausing development do not qualify.
Resolution sources include official company announcements, SEC filings, press releases, and statements from company leadership reported by major news outlets.
As of July 2024, a pause on AI development has not been realized—instead, AI companies have directed "vast investments in infrastructure to train ever-more giant AI systems".

Marchés ouverts

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

No+2.0pt86%
Yes-2.0pt14%

Volume total: 12,4 M €
Volume 24h: 182,3 k €

Anthropic IPO by which date?

December 31,-1.0pt90%
December 15,+3.5pt90%
November 30,85%

+7 résultats de plus

Volume total

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%

+7 résultats de plus

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

Before 2028+3.0pt67%
Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%

+8 résultats de plus

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
Before Jan 1, 202795%
Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%

+9 résultats de plus

Volume total: 1,4 M €

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

$1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
$1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
$1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%

+5 résultats de plus

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027? ?: Manifold Markets cote Yes à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?: Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
Comment Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria

Signaler un problème de données sur ce marché