Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 64%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète15 juin 23, 13:27 UTC31 mai 27, 04:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the U.S.–Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement enter into force?
Kalshi[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of November?
PolymarketAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketThird-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?
PolymarketUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
https://www.reuters.com/technology/un-chief-backs-idea-global-ai-watchdog-like-nuclear-agency-2023-06-12/
- If an international AI watchdog body, modeled after the IAEA, comes into legal force before May 31, 2027, this will resolve YES.
- Detailed criteria to follow.
- [link preview]The ratifying members need NOT include top ranked nations by compute power, such as U.S. or China; the goal of this market is not to speak to any projections of its efficacy in its infancy.
- Critieria for Legal Force: The judgment of whether this qualifies as coming into force will be from multiple (at least 2), written, authoritative news sources (i.e: NYT, WAPO, FT, WSJ); if multiple authoritative sources are not available by May 31, 2027 then this will resolve NO.
- Criteria for Similarity (all must be satisfied):