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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Politique
  3. Who will win the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district
Manifold Markets

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district

PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSans KYC
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Manifold Markets
Marie Alvarado-Gil (incumbent) 6.8%
En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes

4

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 6 jours

Obsolète
18 juin 25, 14:3631 déc. 26, 23:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Marie Alvarado-Gil (incumbent)7%

Règles

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district.
  • The outcome will be determined based on the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State.
  • (ballotpedia.org)
  • California's 4th State Senate district encompasses parts of the northeastern Central Valley, the central Sierra Nevada, and Death Valley, including counties such as Stanislaus, Calaveras, Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Alpine, Tuolumne, Mariposa, Madera, Mono, and Inyo.
  • The district is currently represented by Senator Marie Alvarado-Gil, a Democrat who assumed office on December 5, 2022.

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Actifs dans ces sujets

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Règles

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district.
  • The outcome will be determined based on the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State.
  • (ballotpedia.org)
  • California's 4th State Senate district encompasses parts of the northeastern Central Valley, the central Sierra Nevada, and Death Valley, including counties such as Stanislaus, Calaveras, Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Alpine, Tuolumne, Mariposa, Madera, Mono, and Inyo.
  • The district is currently represented by Senator Marie Alvarado-Gil, a Democrat who assumed office on December 5, 2022.