Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?
Amérique latineIAOne-Off2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleGannon Ken Van Dyke 98.9%En tête parmi 14 options
Prévisionnistes
211
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 24 minutes
7 janv. 26, 16:13 UTC1 janv. 27, 06:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?
Manifold MarketsNicolás Maduro released from custody by which date?
PolymarketMaduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump pardon Nicolás Maduro or commute his sentence in 2026?
PredictItEnd of 2026, will Tumbles think it was good Trump unilaterally removed Maduro?
Manifold MarketsWill former Venezuelan president Nicolaus Maduro come back to power in 2026
Manifold MarketsRègles
As described here: https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/maduro-polymarket-bet-a2e5d100
- I will resolve after the end of 2026 based on my own appraisal of the consensus of publicly available, credible reporting at that time (not based on my own speculation).
- I may resolve to partial probabilities if there has been some reporting but it does not rise to the level of consensus or near-certainty in my view.
- I do not plan to get overly granular about the probabilities in this hypothetical partial resolution case - it's gonna be something like "50% we don't find out, 50% this person" or "25% we don't find out, 50% this person, 25% that person" if I go that route.
- I'll be mentally rounding probabilities above 90% or below 10% to 100% and 0% respectively when I resolve.
- Feel free to add answers (I'm making the market partially in the hopes people will do research to find likely candidates I don't know about) but please note that duplicate answers will be ignored (the first one wins), as will any answers that do not refer to a specific, named person (other than "we don't find out").
