Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleGannon Ken Van Dyke 97.6%En tête parmi 14 options
Prévisionnistes
210
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète7 janv. 26, 16:13 UTC1 janv. 27, 06:00 UTC
Tendances
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsRègles
As described here: https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/maduro-polymarket-bet-a2e5d100
- I will resolve after the end of 2026 based on my own appraisal of the consensus of publicly available, credible reporting at that time (not based on my own speculation).
- I may resolve to partial probabilities if there has been some reporting but it does not rise to the level of consensus or near-certainty in my view.
- I do not plan to get overly granular about the probabilities in this hypothetical partial resolution case - it's gonna be something like "50% we don't find out, 50% this person" or "25% we don't find out, 50% this person, 25% that person" if I go that route.
- I'll be mentally rounding probabilities above 90% or below 10% to 100% and 0% respectively when I resolve.
- Feel free to add answers (I'm making the market partially in the hopes people will do research to find likely candidates I don't know about) but please note that duplicate answers will be ignored (the first one wins), as will any answers that do not refer to a specific, named person (other than "we don't find out").
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Gannon Ken Van Dyke à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As described here: https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/maduro-polymarket-bet-a2e5d100