Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Arkansas' 2nd District?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 202624jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleRepublican Party — French Hill 81.5%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-1.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
6 oct. 26, 05:39 UTC4 nov. 26, 12:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Arkansas' 2nd congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election (plurality winner).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
